.............................................. ...............................................

What is happening to the green vote?

We have referred you to some discourse on this topic before. Below to muddy the waters of certainty further is a graph that charts the Greens vote as polled here in Australia from 2004 to today.. Click on graph to enlarge view:

3 Com:

Anonymous | June 09, 2007

Big article in todays' CM has Green and independent vote in Qld UP
in the face of Beattie and opposition:"

Header: BEATTIE IS BAD, COALITION WORSE

Galaxy/CM Poll

Greens: 11%
Independent: 6&
ALP 46%
Lib/Nat: 37%

(Libs: 20%
National: 17%

Only 800 voters in survey though

Dave Riley | June 10, 2007

This thread here is relevant:PROSPECTS FOR THE GREENS AT THE UPCOMING FEDERAL ELECTION

Dave Riley | June 10, 2007

A few key points:

It had been argued that the Greens may suffer from a squeeze between the two major parties as part of a sharply divided poll...and it appears that when the ALP began to rise in the polls (from say Nov/Dec last year) the Greens percentiles began to slowly & steadily fall.

Discounting the Galaxy poll, all other polls show the Greens at an ebb.

To be expected? Perhaps. But what is the most remarkable is how little the Greens were able to climb above their 2004 figures before starting to slip in the polls again.

Whats' this a ceiling or what? What's happening?

The figures are of course skewed by the fact that in some, especially inner urban, areas, the Greens can poll on voting day over 20% and always lose out when averaged across all regions and electorates.

The last test of Greens strength was the February elections in NSW this year where they got 8.9% of the vote. The increased their vote by between 0.5% and 1% to take them to their highest ever vote in both houses.They polled over 30% in Marrickville and Balmain, over 20% in another three (Coogee, Ballina and Peter Debnam's seat of Vaucluse), and over 15% in another 10. Greens outpolled the Labor candidates in a few North Shore (Sydney rich suburbs) electorates.

But given the main party options a rise was to be expected surely?

Post a Comment