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Polling the lesser of two evils

by Dave Riley

If you want to struggle with some mental arithmetic, the latest polls are out. Study em as aggregated graphs here at OzPolitics.

But the trend for The Greens still indicates a flat preference.

My feeling is that this upcoming poll will tend to be a polarized vote -- offering little room for alternative voting and this may show up as a trend to a falling vote for alternative parties more so than on other occasions -- such as in 2004.

Click to enlarge view
But the irony is that there doesn't seem to exist the gung ho enthusiasm that was garnered for a Whitlam Labor victory in 1972 or for the Hawke ALP one in 1983. In effect what we may be seeing is a preference against Howard with Rudd being seen as -- you guessed it, given our options -- the lesser of two evils and the only handy tool useful to rid us of Howard.

People aren't fools you know.

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