Today’s fairfax press (SMH, Age) reported on the 6 monthly aggregation from ACNielsen.
According to Phillip Coorey in the SMH,
JOHN HOWARD and nine of his ministers would be among the 44 Coalition MPs to lose their seats at this year’s election under a worst-case scenario based on the latest six-month average of the Herald/Nielsen Poll.
In NSW alone, the Coalition would lose 12 seats while in Queensland it could lose 16, the exact number of seats Labor needs to win to govern in its own right.
The state-by-state swings to Labor over the 2004 election result were 9.9 per cent in new South Wales, 7.9 per cent in Victoria, 12.3 per cent in Queensland, 14.9 per cent in South Australia and the Northern Territory, and 5 per cent in Western Australia. All grist for Antony Green’s Calculator
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