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Another 10 predictions for the year ahead

Within the very bowels of Stoke on Trent  within the 4 walls of Ol Blighty, Phil BC at (what I always call) AVPS offers 10 predictions for the year ahead.

Since my da was a china man (huh! he sold pottery) and many a piece from Stoke sat upon  the Riley's dinner table...& since I have neglected posting here because of reboot issues and pending take offs in other provinces of political cyberspace... I will offer another 10 points in order to test my   predictive powers

In doing this I will try to keep my political hat on my political head:
  1. The Socialist Alliance conference, starting in two days time, will plumb its attributes enough for a reboot of the party's focus and dynamic for the year ahead.
  2. Prior to that, on the day before,  the short and sharp DSP conference will decide to merge with the Socialist Alliance and it will be the last time the many DSPers will come together as one collective unit. Nostalgia  and trepidation  will bear down upon many comrades as they enter a totally unknown party building experience.None but the brave, eh?
  3. The various elections at state (and maybe federal) level will be marked by a historically significant resistance by the trade unions to fall in step behind the ALP bandwagon. What that may mean in terms of formal break from the Labor Party is another question entirely but we could experience the beginning of some tentative  independent electoral action ran by some trade unions themselves by fielding their own  independent candidates.
  4. The growing partnership between the Alliance and a sector of the left in the Greens will continue to consolidate making for a very sharp and productive partnership pole within the Climate Change movement, now given a massive boost by the events -- and non events -- at Copenhagen.
  5. Given Chavez's role at Copenhagen and the call generated from Venezuela for a 5th Socialist International, the prospect of a new level of international cooperation and unity among  socialist parties will be a matter of some broad debate, especially on the criteria for membership.All toy internationals will predictably hold this development at arms length  or, in the case of the 4th, begrudgingly raise a succession of hesitancies to ensure that any momentum on their part is totally conditional. However, touch wood, the enthusiasm of hundreds of parties and mass organisations world wide will buoy up the project taking socialist left cooperation to a new possibility and a new beginning under the banner of 21st Century Socialism.
  6. The Greens will once again switch on the rah rahs for each polling day (and switch them off the day after)  but while their percentile share  will increase their electoral support  will be contained by a certain resistance in the electorate  driven by the self evident contradictions and gaps in their platform.  Whether that may lead to a swing back towards the Tories or some new right wing package a la  Pauline Hansen depends to some degree on what happens in the bourgeois media orchestrated debates and how effectively the race and refugee card is played by the main parties.Nonetheless, the Alliance will begin to register small and steady electoral gains only after a lot of hard work at the local level.
  7. The anti-war movement which has been in limbo for years will slowly  consolidate once again and with some effort by  a few dedicated activists, begin to challenge the federal consensus (that travels little from Capital Hill) on Afghanistan.
  8. The everyday condition of indigenous Australians will continue to deteriorate but the oppressive presence of the Northern Territory Intervention will continue to sharply polarize  the Aboriginal community between Jackie Jackies and activists in a way not seen before.At stake  is whether this is enough to sponsor a new layer of  leadership and a political renaissance.
  9. The stresses of the Summer heat and the bushfire season as well as the prospect of  flash  floods as the Wet move across the North  will make Australians concerned that the conditions of their environmental existence are  being changed sharply by climate factors. Another long El Nino   driven drought would only deepen this sense of climate crisis. as may be a further bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef this Summer. How this pans out in terms of political consequences and gains is a challenge for the left of the environment movement - and not something that Peter Garret can ever prevent.
  10. All  far left orgs outside the Socialist Alliance will remain committed to their patented tribal grouping and stay well clear of any unity process that may suggest another way of doing political business. But with new energy sources invested in the SA through the merging of the DSP , the project will draw in more layers of independent leftists (in part because there is no factionalism or dogmatism  in the party  and a viable spirit of consensus)and  be seen as  a more appealing home for the migrant left.

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